Ag markets finished lower across the board on Wednesday at the CBOT, as pessimism surrounding China outweighed potential crop reductions due to dry August weather at least for the day. A cold front producing showers through the northern and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt also likely added to the day's pressure on the margin, while otherwise news was largely the same as its been in recent days and there was little new for the trade to sink their teeth into fundamentally.

Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.18, down 5 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.36, down 4 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -18, down 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Private American commodity brokerage/analyst Allendale released survey-based yield estimates earlier this morning; the group pegged national average corn yield at 187.52 bu/acre, which is just below the USDA's August estimate of 188.8. Last year, the group's survey pegged corn yield at 182.5 bu/acre compared to the final figure of 179.3.

• Weekly ethanol production and stocks data, typically out on Wednesdays, will be released at 11am central time tomorrow morning (Thursday) due to the Labor Day Holiday on Monday. Traders see the report showing avg daily production for the week ending August 29th between 1.060-1.068 mil bbls/day, while stocks are seen between 22.200-22.449 mil bbls.

Summary:

Corn futures came under selling pressure on Wednesday based on the fact that rains were falling across the northern Corn Belt (though probably too little too late to make a lot of material difference) and also on falling basis levels in Brazil as the farmer there has rewarded the Chicago rally by converting futures hedges to cash sales. The South American situation is likely accurate, but overall, we see Wednesday as another day where the news is chasing the market with wires searching for reasons as to the decline in price values. Harvest is right around the corner and traders are looking for confirmation on whether or not US corn yields are as big as the USDA says they are.

Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.31 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.50, down 9 1/2 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $277.60, down 70 cents/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.44, down 0.82 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -18 1/2, unchanged

📋 Market Headlines:

• USDA this morning reported that private exporters sold 185,000 MTs of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2025/26 marketing year. Of note, this is the first flash sale of any kind since August 22nd, and the first meal flash sale since July 8th.

• Allendale's producer survey also pegged the national average soybean yield at 53.28 bu/acre this year, which compares to the USDA's August estimate of 53.6. Last year, the group's survey pegged yield in September at 53.3 bu/acre, while final was seen at 50.7.

Summary:

The soy complex led to the downside on Wednesday, with all three of beans, meal and oil finishing the day in the red on more pessimism surrounding Chinese export demand. The good news for US exports is that non-China new crop business has been above average to this point in the year, but the million dollar question is just how long can this pace to the rest of the world be sustained and what happens come January when South America has potentially another record amount of exportable supplies at a price that will presumably be below ours. This is what's keeping rallies in check to this point and why the longer terms bears have maintained their stance despite one of the drier Augusts in recent memory.

Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.22, down 6 1/4 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.38 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -16 1/4, unchanged
• Private Black Sea crop consultancy SovEcon on Wednesday raised their estimate of Russia's 2025/26 exports from 43.3 MMTs to 43.7 MMTs, citing further production increases on improving yields. However, the group said they also weren't ready to make more aggressive adjustments at this point due to the slow pace through the first two months of the season.

📋 Market Headlines:

Summary:

Chicago wheat futures closed lower for a second consecutive day this week on Wednesday as the September seasonal patterns have yet to grab hold of the marketplace. News continues to be focused mostly on the global market, with sliding FOB values in both Russia and Europe acting to keep a lid on values in the US.