Good afternoon. Markets were higher again today, showing more strength after Friday's surprise report. CH closed at 4.76 1/2, up 6 cents on the day. CK was up 7 1/4 cents to 4.86 3/4. SH was up 27 3/4 - outperforming Friday's session - to close at 10.53. SK finished at 10.66 1/2, up 28 1/2. WH closed at 5.45 up 14 1/4. Soybean meal and oil markets were strong as well with soybean meal futures uniformly up almost $10/ton, and oil futures up between 40-50 points.

Outside markets were also generally strong, with most major indexes eking out small gains with the exception of the NASDAQ which was slightly lower. Stock markets are having trouble rallying in the face of swiftly rising bond rates. The 10-Year Treasury is trading up to 4.79% and the 30-Year Treasury up to 4.97%. The 10-Year continues to make new 52-week highs. The interest rate cut outlook has been muddied by recent strong employment data and other strong economic figures.

Front month crude oil futures saw a jump, with the February contract more than $2/barrel higher and the March contract more than $1/barrel higher. Recent news of US sanctions on Russia's oil industry has roiled the crude oil market, with the front month February contract nearly $5/barrel higher in the past two trading sessions. The rest of the crude oil futures curve is generally weaker, though. Finally, the dollar index is once again moving into new highs trading within an eyelash of 1.10 - the highest level since early October 2023. The sharp move higher in the dollar has not been a barrier to rising commodity prices.

Corn and soybean spreads were weaker today. CH/CK closed at -10 1/4, down -1 1/4. SH/SK closed at -13 1/2, down -3/4. SH/SK is down from a the high of -10 from Friday. WH/WK traded the other way today, settling a penny higher to -11 3/4.

Corn and soybean markets are pricing stocks-to-use ratios that now look very different than last week. Corn is now 10.2% versus 11.4% in December. The corn ending stocks are particularly striking because of the outlook this past Summer. In June 2024 USDA pegged US ending stocks at 2.102 bbu which put the stocks-to-use ratio at 14.2%. 2024/25 corn ending stocks have been steadily revised lower since, and stocks are now 27% lower than June 2024.

For soybeans, the new ratio is 8.7% versus 10.8% in December. Soybeans also may now find more support from weather as news from Argentina forecasts hot and dry weather is causing crop stress. While some precipitation returns to the near term forecast, the longer term remains uncertain. The end of January is an important time for crop development in Argentina so South American weather markets could bring further volatility.

Export inspections were released this morning and showed corn inspections at 56.73 mbu and soybeans at 49.61 mbu. Those figures were higher than expected for corn, and within expectations for soybeans. For wheat, inspections were 10.62 mbu which was within expectations. The pace continues stronger than last year. Wheat, soybeans, and corn inspections at this point of the year are 25%, 22%, and 26% ahead of last year. USDA also had a daily export announcement this morning - private exporters reported sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.