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April 22, 2025

Good afternoon. Markets had a quiet day in the ag space on Tuesday, as a rebound in the financial world was unable to lift grain prices, while soybeans traded slightly higher on perceived optimism surrounding China. The better-than-expected corn planting number from yesterday afternoon led some to believe the decent pace to this point will lead to additional acres, which was given as cause for the selling throughout the day.

CK closed at 4.75 and 3/4 on Tuesday, down 6 cents. CN was down 6 and 3/4 at 4.83 and 1/4. SK finished at 10.35, up 5 and 1/2 cents. SN closed at 10.46, up 4 and 1/2 cents. Inside day for both on the beans. WK was down 3 cents at 5.35 and 1/2. Products finished lower, May soybean meal closed at 291.90, down $1.0/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 47.58, down 24 points. Outside day lower for oil. Livestock markets were back in the green following a one-day correction on Monday; June live cattle closed at 206.27, up $2.52, May feeders closed at 286.92, up $1.40, and June hogs closed at 100.27, up $2.22. Inside day for feeders. Outside markets have spent most of the day higher; crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 900 points and also some 200 points off its highs, and the US$ index is up 50-60 points. The S&P500 is up 110 points and the NASDAQ is up 370 points. Inside day and no new contract lows for the $ index. Gold futures have had a reversal day and are down $30-40/oz after rallying to new all-time highs again at 3,509.90/oz in the June contract.

While negative to corn prices from the standpoint of more acres, the good planting progress is marginally friendly to soybeans, as more corn acres theoretically means less soybean acres. This, plus comments from Trade Secretary Bessent surrounding a possible de-escalation of the tensions with China, were the main reasons for the buying in soybeans on Tuesday, as well as the fact that China was back in the global soybean market buying Brazilian beans, which though not from the US, is a good sign for global demand. Besides that, there were more buyers than sellers and it would appear to us as though the news was chasing the market a bit on what was otherwise a slow/quiet day. The farmer side of the ag markets has their attention on planting and fieldwork and the 'money' side of the market has their attention on the evolving trade war and US policy, which has produced sideways trade over the past week or so. It will take something new fundamentally, either in the form of a trade deal that specifically outlines purchases of US beans or a weather-based supply disruption, in order to get prices to break one way or the other.

Circling back to the comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which were given at a closed-door JP Morgan investor meeting, the secretary indicated negotiations would be a 'slog', and added that he and his team viewed the current tariff situation as unsustainable. Bessent likened the current trading environment to an embargo situation, saying that because current tariff levels exceeded the costs of goods from both countries little trade would occur. What part of this is 'de-escalatory', as was indicated in the initial headlines, is a bit of a head-scratcher to us. The bottom line seems to remain that the US side wants China to rework the way it does business with them, and the Chinese side appears to be unwilling to do so. That said, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also told reporters on Tuesday that negotiations were going well with China, and that "the ball is moving in the right direction."

It also appears the US is close to trade deals with both Japan and India, though no official word has been made on either. Starting with Japan, sources have indicated that the two sides have come to a framework agreement, similar to the one mentioned with India yesterday, that would lay the groundwork for future discussions. Despite this, Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba has expressed concern regarding the consistency of US trade policy, saying recent tariffs have contradicted prior agreements. On India, there were no new details out of meetings between Vice President Vance and PM Modi, but US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer did acknowledge the constructive participation on behalf of India while also further highlighting the current trade imbalances between the two countries. Press Secretary Leavitt in her comments today furthermore added that the US currently had 18 proposals on paper for new trade deals.

Weather news remains the other ongoing topic of interest, though here too there wasn't a lot new to speak of on Tuesday. The GFS model, which has been the less accurate of the two as of late, continues to run drier than the EU model at mid-day on Tuesday, though both are offering good precip and thunderstorms to the mid-south/southeast and also the central Plains through the rest of this week and into next. Heaviest totals appear to be in the 2-3" ballpark, and look to be focused on the border area between Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa; the eastern and northeastern Corn Belt will inversely see the lightest totals, where just 0.1-0.5" is expected. Extended forecasts, which now reach the first week of May, continue to show above average precip potential through most of the eastern half of the country, while temperatures continue to look mostly above average in the same time period.

Other global weather news includes a dry 10-day outlook for most of Ukraine, while areas in Russia's southern wheat belt look to see above average precip; regions to the north though will be short-changed and look to hold in a drier pattern. The bulk of China's ag areas also look dry over the next 10 days, while heavy rains are expected in the south and southwest. We will continue to touch on South American weather if any changes occur, but amid its shrinking market importance, will also begin touching on other global ag areas more.