March corn was 3/4 cent higher today at $6.68 3/4 and January soybeans were up 21 cents at $14.57 1/4 while March wheat in Chicago was 18 3/4 cents lower at $7.56 3/4.

Trade started out the week mixed with wide swings in the futures market. The main topic in the market to start the week was the spike in Covid cases in China and its potential impact on demand. This was not just for grains and oilseeds, but all products, including the energies. Civil unrest is being reported in China which is adding to market uncertainty and volatility. The US dollar was weaker to start the week but firmed as the day progressed. Interesting to see the food versus fuel debate is again making headlines. High US food costs are being blamed on rising renewable energy production although a surge in electric vehicle demand is tempering this worry. The market did find support from South American weather, mainly in Argentina, where conditions remain unfavorable for current production and potentially the second round of crops in the country as well.  

Corn futures were negative today as there remains little reason for managed money buying in the complex. This is especially the case with month end this Wednesday which brings first notice day on the December contract. The spread between the US and other corn sources has narrowed but not enough to attract from export business. Corn values in China have reached record highs and there are thoughts this could bring us demand, although the country is focused on corn out of the Black Sea and feed wheat from Australia. Ukraine exports are slowing, but cumulative shipments are still up 66% on the year. China is also taking delivery of Brazil corn which further limits how much they might need from the US. Prospects for a larger crop out of Brazil are also tempering buying of US offers at this time. Sharp losses in wheat spilled into the corn complex as well. The corn complex did take support today from ongoing strength in the domestic market. 

Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged today as volatility built in the complex. The most interest in the complex was on the new Peso deal in Argentina that will boost the return on sales by 39% from the current exchange rate to the US dollar. There are thoughts this will generate nearly 5 million metric tons of sales from now until the end of December. This will increase competition for the US and greatly narrow the widow for additional US sales this year. These worries were offset by weather concerns in Argentina that are likely trimming yields. Drought may also reduce Argentine acres this year. Brazil conditions are near perfect though and elevated crop estimates are being seen there. Soybeans continue to find support from the tight US stocks to use regardless of global production figures. Futures were also supported today from a 110,000 metric ton sale to an unknown buyer. A rally in crude oil on talks of an OPEC production cut was also beneficial for the complex. 

Sizable declines were posted in the wheat complex today as technical selling continued. This was compounded by the fact only the only real region of concern on production right now is in Argentina where crop loss of 31% is being reported. The US Plains are still in a major drought, but this can easily be remedied over winter. The final rating on the winter crop will be released after the close tonight. Australian crop estimates continue to rise as does quality. The price spread between the US and other sources is narrowing which is hopeful to bring more export demand. The spread between corn and wheat has also narrowed to just $1.03 which is favorable for wheat demand over corn, especially for feeding. Trade is closely monitoring wheat exports out of the Black Sea which are currently down 54% on the year. The most negativity for wheat is concerns that importing countries may lack needed financing to make purchases from any source. 

Export inspections for the week ending November 24th were all down from the previous week but still favored soybeans over the grains. Soybean loadings totaled 74.3 million bu (mbu) for the week, 16.6% less than the week before, but well above the volume needed to reach yearly projections. Corn loadings came in at 11.9 mbu, a decline of 39.4% on the week and just one-quarter of the needed amount per week. Wheat inspections were down 31.9% on the week at 7.3 mbu which was half of the needed volume. Year to date export inspections are down from last year by 32.7% on corn, 10.1% on soybeans, and 3.8% for wheat. 

While the Ukraine export corridor remains open there are sizable delays to shipments taking place. This is mainly from the lengthy inspection process that is taking place in Turkey. At the present time there are over 100 vessels waiting to be inspected. This is concerning as the recent inspection pace has averaged just 2 ½ vessels per day. As a result, shippers are showing more concern with entering the region. Those who are sending ships to Ukraine are raising their rates considerably, narrowing the spread with others global grain suppliers, including the United States.