Free DP for on farm Corn & all Soybeans.  Priced By Aug 31

July 26, 2024   

Nearly all red on the screen today as agricultural markets are lower across the board with speculators returning to the sell side of the market. No change in the near-term forecast as building heat in the southern plains and WCB is expected to last into early August. Above normal temperatures are expected to expand east into the central and ECB however an extended stretch of mid 90’s or hotter isn’t anticipated. Indications that the high pressure ridge slides further west in week 2 of August has driven the extraction of weather premium today. With US drought readings historically low the market seems to be quickly shrugging off the late July into early August heat. Rainfall over the next 5-7 days to favor the NC Midwest and ECB as systems ride up and over the high pressure ridge. Scattered moisture for the central Midwest with little to no rain expected for southern plains and far WCB. Temperatures have moderated in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia however net drying is still occurring. Heavy rains fell in Northern Alberta yesterday however much of the southern and EC regions along with western Saskatchewan remain dry. No export sale announcements today. The US $$ index is slightly lower at midday. Spot crude oil is down $.80 per barrel. US stock indices have surged 1.50% -
2.0%. Precious metals and soft commodities are mixed.

Corn
Prices are $.08 lower falling back to lower end of its 3 week range. Sept-24 can’t shake out of its $3.90-$4.10 range. Roughly $4.03-$4.23 for Dec-24. Speculators bought roughly 35k contracts of corn this week prior to today without much upside price movement to show for it. The BAGE reports Argentine corn harvest has reached 87%, up 8% for the week. Production was left unchanged at 46.5 mmt vs. the USDA at 52 mmt. Corn ratings in France increased 1% this week to 82% G/E. Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports thru July 26 the have reached 3.0 mmt, well above the 1.9 mmt YA. Corn exports represented 1.44 mmt of this total. With this week’s heat and dryness in the WCB I’d expect crop ratings to slip 1-2% on Monday.

Soybeans

With the exception of spot meal the soybean complex is sharply lower at midday.  Beans are down $.31 making fresh session low, meal is steady to $1 higher in nearby futures with deferred down $3-$4 while oil is getting pounded down nearly $.02 lb. Aug-24 beans are back below $11.00 likely setting up a challenge of the July contract low at $10.75 ¾. Nov-24 beans have so far held above support at $10.50. Aug-24 oil plunged thru its 50 day MA support just above $.45. At midday prices are hovering below the July low at $.44 lb. Aug-24 meal has jumped out to a fresh 2 week high and above the 50 day MA resistance drawing support from strong domestic and export demand. Next resistance is the July high just below $360. Spot board crush margins has jumped another $.06 at midday to $1.70 bu., the highest since opening days of July. Bean oil PV has plunged to just over 38% down from its recent peak at 41%. I also expect soybean ratings to slip 1-2% next Monday. 

Wheat

Prices are $.14 lower. So far Chicago Sept-24 has held support at its contract low of $5.25 ¼. Same for Sept-24 KC at $5.45 ¾. Sept-24 MGEX fell back below the $6.00 level however still well above its contract low near $5.75. The ND spring wheat tour forecasts state yields at 54.5 bpa, the highest ever for the tour that started in the early 90’s. The USDA is forecast yields at 56 bpa, well above the previous record of 50 bpa in 2022. SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production forecast .5 mmt to 84.7 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 83 mmt. It wasn’t too long along it was feared their production wouldn’t reach 80 mmt. Taiwan Flour Millers Association is tendering for nearly 106k mt of US milling 
wheat for late Oct-24 shipment. 

T-Storm Weather Update

Amounts are increased to 0.75" to 1.75" in the Corn Belt over the next week.
 
Very warm and hot weather start over the next several days for corn and soybeans. A cool front and  / or upper-level system pass within Mon.-Fri. to trigger some t-storm clusters in the Corn Belt (beyond some rain until then), ultimately resulting in 0.75" to 1.75". Temperatures drop slightly as the system passes in the Corn Belt but stay hot in the Plains, after which very warm and hot weather re-envelop a wide area 7 to 10 days out and continue for several days.
 
A cool front of some magnitude probably follows within Aug. 6-8 to revert temperatures to normal with some t-storms, but the exact setup will take until at least Sunday to determine.