July 6th, 2020

CORN

Corn futures closed 2 to 3 cents higher, but the volatility in the market was lower than expected after the long weekend. The forecast still looks warm and dry early this week, but there are some slightly cooling and increased thunderstorm possibilities later this week. Rainfall is expected to be confined mostly to the west early this week, with some isolated rain chances in the east towards the weekend. Weather will be the main driver for the trade this week as many areas are approaching the key crop development time frame. The crop progress report will be out this afternoon. Ratings are expected to be mostly steady as the ratings remain supported have last week’s rains. Ratings will be closely watched over the next couple of weeks to determine how this heat impacted the crop potential. The USDA announced the sale of 202,000 tons of corn sold to China in 20/21. They also announced the sale of 182,880 tons of corn sold to Mexico, with nearly 122K slated for 20/21 and the balance expected for 21/22. Corn inspections this morning totaled 37.9 Mln. bu. Total inspections now stand at 1.346 Bln. bu. and need to average 53.5 Mln. bu. per week to meet the USDA target. The commitment of traders’ report will be out this afternoon.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans closed higher as it was the leader in the strength today. A concerning warm forecast as well as increased export interest offered the help today. The USDA announced a sale of 264,000 tons of beans to China in 19/20. There was also talk today that China was looking for additional offers for U.S. beans for that fall time frame. Export inspections totaled 19.2 Mln. bu. Total inspections stand at 1.371 Bln. bu. and need to average nearly 35 Mln. bu. per week to reach the USDA target. The crop progress reports this afternoon are expected to show bean ratings steady from last week. Despite the recent strength in bean futures and equities, there remains underlying concern about U.S. and Chinese relations. There remains at least some fear that the Phase 1 trade deal could be unwound in some way if tensions between the two countries would escalate over the treatment of Hong Kong.

WHEAT
Wheat futures closed slightly higher after a two-sided trade today. Wheat inspections totaled 12.0 Mln. bu. They need to average 18.4 Mln. bu. to reach the USDA goal. Slow exports and on-going harvest continue to limit the upside for wheat.