We are offering Free DP for Soybeans.  Off farm bushels only at this time

Jan 21, 2025

Markets are higher after the long holiday weekend.

Corn up 5, Beans up 32, and Wheat up 19

Russian wheat exports have fallen steadily since October and at an expected 2 mmt in January are well below the 5-year average according to analyst SovEcon.

Midwest temperatures are bitterly cold today, dropping below zero in many areas.  The cold will subside as we move later in the week; longer term the forecast is for normal or near normal temperatures.

The dollar index has been volatile in the past two sessions, and is down sharply this morning trading 125 points lower.

The dollar index is swinging on uncertainty over President Trump's tariff stance, which could be softer than expected; the market was relieved to see no tariffs were announced on day one.

Funds have now turned long the soybean market, moving from a short -28,612 position to a long 34,833 position week-over-week according to Friday's data.

The fund corn position remains long and funds added week-over-week to sit at a long 292,228 position - the largest long position held by funds since the week of May 17, 2022.

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) estimates soybean production at 171.7 mmt in 2025, an increase from 168.7 mmt in their December forecast. 

Brazil's soybean harvest has begun with 1.7% complete versus 6% complete this time last year.

Soybean futures are supported partially on the dry situation in Argentina, which has received below average precipitation in January for key areas of the growing region.

With 32 weeks remaining in the market year corn inspections are 30.5% ahead of last year and beans are 20.6% ahead of last year.

Wheat inspections are 24% ahead of last year with 19 weeks remaining in the marketing year.

Oil prices are down 2% this morning as the supply outlook brightens with the new Trump administration.

The President supports initiatives to increase the production of fossil fuels, including signing orders to revoke former President Biden’s prohibition of oil and gas drilling in large areas in the Arctic and U.S. coastal waters.

Equities markets are higher this morning lead by the Russell 2000 up 1.5% and the DOW up 1%.

The 10-Year Treasury is off the recent high of 4.774% from January 10 trading 4.572% this morning.