Good afternoon. Markets at the CBOT were again lower on Tuesday and traded below Monday's lows for most of the session. December corn briefly tested and held $4 today, but optimistic is probably not the word we would use to describe our opinion towards whether this continues for the rest of the week following action over the last two days. And November soybeans traded below $10 for the duration of today's session, clearly illustrating the downward momentum that exists; Dec corn and Nov beans both closed lower today for the seventh time in the last ten sessions.

CZ closed at 4.01 1/4, down 7 cents. CH was down 7 1/4 at 4.17 1/2. SX closed at 9.91, down 5 cents. SF finished at 10.03 1/2, down 8 cents. WZ was down 5 3/4 at 5.79 1/2. Products were mixed but the opposite of yesterday, December soybean meal was down $3.50/ton at 311.80, and December soybean oil closed at 42.45, up 55 points. Livestock markets were lower, December live cattle closed at 186.52, down $1.40, November feeders were down $3.10 at 246.47, and December hogs closed at 75.22, down 57 cents. Outside markets are trading lower also, crude oil futures are down around $3/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 360 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 290 points. As of this writing, both the S&P and the US$ are having inside trading days.

Spreads were mixed, corn spreads were up 1/4 of a cent to down a penny and 3/4, and soybean spreads were up 1/2 cent to up 4 3/4 cents. CZ/CH closed at -16 1/4, up 1/4 of a cent, and SX/SF closed at -12 1/2, up 3 cents. New highs for the move today for CZ/CH at -15 1/2, and also for SX/SF at -12. Also of note, WZ/WH had an outside day higher and closed at -21 1/4.

Following yesterday's holiday, USDA this morning announced daily sales of 131,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/25 marketing year, and also announced 120,000 mt's of soft red winter wheat for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year. Of note, this is the first wheat flash sale for the 2024/25 crop year, and also the first wheat flash sale for any marketing year since the middle of March when China bought wheat for three consecutive sessions.

This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending October 10th showed a corn figure for the week that was well below both trade expectations and last week's total, while soybean and wheat numbers for the week both came in inside of trade expectations. Corn inspections totaled 430k mt's, which was down 55% from last week; cumulative pace is 19% ahead of last year. Soybean inspections totaled 1.575 mil mt's, which was down 3.1% from last week; cumulative pace is down 7% from last year. Of note, last week's soybean inspection figure was revised higher by nearly 200k mt's. And lastly, wheat inspections totaled 371k mt's, which was up 2% from last week; cumulative pace is up 33% from last year.

Conab, which is Brazil's USDA equivalent, released their first production estimates for the 2024/25 corn and soybean crops this morning; the data offered little surprise to the markets, as numbers were mostly as the trade had expected and saw little deviation from preliminary estimates released last month. Brazil soybean production in the coming season was estimated at 166.054 mmt's, which would be up nearly 13% from last year. Total corn production was seen at 119.739 mmt's, which would be up 3.5% from last year. On the area side, soybean planted area was seen increasing from 46.03 mil hectares last year to 47.33 mil hectares this year, and corn area was seen decreasing marginally from 21.05 mil hectares last year to 21.00 mil hectares this year. To see our Conab production maps, please click here.

Other data on Tuesday included the NOPA soybean crush report for the month of September. The data showed soybean crush in the month at 177.32 mil bu's, which was well above the average trade guess and a new record for September; the figure was also up more than 7% from last year. The report also showed soybean oil stocks at 1.066 bil lbs, which was close to the average trade guess but still the sixth consecutive monthly decline, and also the smallest reading since November of 2014. USDA will release their crush data for the month of September on November 1st.

Changes to the mid-day weather forecast were again minimal on Tuesday. Both the GFS and EU models continue to see improved rainfall chances in the western half of the country beginning the end of this week and into the weekend, with totals estimated in a range of 0.01 to 2" into the middle of next week. Temperatures in the short term will be cold through mid-week, but return to mostly above average levels through most of the Midwest by the weekend and into the first part of next week. Confidence in any forecast beyond a week remains rather low, as extended range guidance continues to see poor agreement from the models.

Updates were also minimal in South America, where scattered showers are expected to continue falling in north/central Brazil and also northern Argentina for the remainder of this week. Both week-one and week-two precip maps are downright wet for most all of Brazil, which should help expedite soy planting pace. And as mentioned previously, recent rains and cloudy days have helped cool temps off a bit, with most of east/central Brazil seen in a below average temp pattern over the next week.