We are offering Free DP for Corn and Soybeans.  Off farm bushels only at this time

Mar 25, 2025

Markets are lower again today with corn, wheat, and beans down 5-6

Nearby soybean export values fell around three cents yesterday with values steady so far this morning.

Temperatures around the Midwest will bounce around this week without consistent warmth.

The best chance for rain in the Midwest this week is on Thursday and then again this weekend.

Winter wheat in Kansas was rated 49% "good to excellent" - up 1% versus last week - according to crop progress data from yesterday.

Just 37% of Oklahoma winter wheat is rated "good to excellent" - down 9 percentage points week-over-week due to reports of extreme winds, lack of rain, and wildfires that reduced soil moisture and crop conditions. 

Texas has planted 45% of their corn crop as of the week ending March 23, in-line with the 5-year average pace.

Russia's IKAR - The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies - on Monday raised its "baseline 2025 wheat crop forecast to 82.5 million metric tons from 81.0 million tons previously as the winter crop situation improves."

They note "The spring sowing campaign has been underway in Russia for several weeks now."

EU rapeseed yields are expected to be 8% higher in the 2025 than 2024 according to the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit.

The increased production has weighed on rapeseed prices which also is helpful to ease global vegetable oil prices.

Crude oil markets are unchanged this morning, but have seen an upward trend over the previous week.

Crude is firmer as of late partially in response to President Trump's comments on anyone buying Venezuelan oil will face a 25% tariff on goods into the United States.

Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, and is ranked the 10th-largest producer in OPEC.

Canada will hold elections on April 28 after the new Prime Minister Mark Carney called for snap elections on Sunday.

Conservatives look to take control of the 343-member House of Commons and appoint a new Prime Minister on the tails of Trudeau's unpopularity; at the time parliament was dissolved a few days ago the Liberals held 152 seats and the Conservatives 120 seats.

We are offering Free DP for Corn & Soybeans.  Off farm bushels only at this time

Mar 21, 2025

Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets at the Board of Trade saw mostly lower closes to end the week this week, as one of the lower volume days of the past several weeks produced a rather uneventful Friday. The 'March Madness exodus' was even more pronounced at mid-morning than we had anticipated, with there being very few around to see the final bell this afternoon.

CK ended the week at 4.64 1/4 on Friday, down 4 and 3/4. CN was down 4 cents at 4.71 and 1/2. SK closed at 10.09 and 3.4, down 3 and 1/4. SN finished at 10.21 and 1/2, down 3 and 3/4. WK closed a penny higher at 5.58 and 1/4. Inside day for WK. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 300.30, up $3.20/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 42.01, down 70 points. Inside day for bean oil also. Livestock markets were mixed to end the week; April live cattle closed at 206.95, down $1.52, April feeders closed at 284.97, down $3.47, and April hogs closed at 86.12, up 57 cents. Cattle markets made new contract highs before reversing course and finishing the day lower. Outside markets are mixed/quiet, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 20-25 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 90 points. New highs for the week for both crude and the $ index. Gold futures were lower for most of the day and are trading down $15-20/oz.

Spreads ended the week mixed, corn spreads were up a quarter cent to down 2 3/4, and soybean spreads were up a half cent to down a penny and a quarter. CK/CN closed the week at -7 and 1/4, down 3/4 of a cent, and SK/SN closed the week at -11 and 3/4, up a half cent.

For the week: May corn was up 5 and 3/4 cents; July corn was up 4 cents; May soybeans were down 6 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were down 8 and 1/2 cents; May Chicago wheat was up a penny and a quarter cent; May soybean meal was down $5.60/ton; and May soybean oil was up 42 points.

There continues to be on again - off again trade/tariff talk surrounding April 2nd's deadline, with the rumors through the day today focusing on meetings between Chinese and US trade teams that are scheduled for next week. President Trump, speaking at the White House, reiterated that his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping was "great" and that the two would be speaking sometime soon, though no further details were given. It appears the threat of increased duties after the first of April have at the very least caused some countries to think about coming to the negotiating table, but it remains unclear whether Trump actually wants to negotiate or if the tariffs are going on one way or another. Past history would say the latter is likely, but that there is dialogue going on between he and other leaders is at least a positive sign.

Market specific data was otherwise lacking on Friday, aside from the post-market-close reports of monthly cattle on feed and the weekly CFTC commitment of traders report. Of note, there were no daily sales flashes announced by the USDA this morning, which means confirmation of yesterday's rumored cash corn sales to Brazil continues to be lacking. For the cattle on feed report, data showed the US feedlot herd as of March 1 at 11.577 mil head, which was right near trade expectations and down just 2% from last year. Placements during February were seen at 1.554 mil head, down 18% from last year, and marketings in the month were seen at 1.633 mil head, down 9% from last year. The trade had expected the placements figure to be down from last year, but the actual reading was even lower than the average trade guess by about 4%.

The weekly commitment of traders report showed another week of fund selling in corn, but not quite to the extent of the last couple weeks. Data shows that as of Tuesday, March 18th, managed money traders are now net-long just 107,270 contracts of combined corn futures/options, which is a decline of another 39,270 contracts from last week. In soybeans, managed money traders are now net-short 22,005 combined futures/options contracts, which was down 6,462 on the week. And in Chicago wheat, managed money is now net-short 80,668 combined futures/options contracts, which is down 3,256 from last week. In soy products, funds were buyers of 11,015 contracts of soybean meal, which makes them now net-short 61,013 contracts, and were sellers of 13,756 contracts of soybean oil, which makes them now net-short 22,005 contracts.

Will keep the weather comments short this afternoon, as forecasts through the weekend and into next week continue to look largely the same as those seen throughout the rest of the week. Further precip is seen for the upper Corn Belt/northeast Midwest Sunday/Monday and into the first part of next week, while south of the equator, rains look to return to Argentina in the next couple days, while the safrinha corn crop in Brazil will see more moisture over the next week. A bulk of the Midwest and Corn Belt looks set to receive beneficial moisture over the next 10-15 days, which mixed with continued above average temperatures, will have producers in the southern regions itching to get in the fields in the near future.

Have a good weekend; weather won't be too bad for those that can dodge the moisture, especially in the west, with the onset of spring meaning more and more nice days are ahead. As far as trading next week goes, we largely see another week similar to this one, as the fact remains that there will be few interested in taking on large new risk positions ahead of the acreage report on the 31st and the tariff announcements later that week on April 2nd. Fund traders have, for the most part, shed excess length in their corn and soy positions, and now await the next the fundamental reason to either keep covering or go back long.