Good afternoon. Higher trade was seen across the ag space at mid-week, as the same mix of weather (US high pressure ridging) and China talks that produced mostly higher trade on Tuesday spilled over into Wednesday's session as well. Values in all three of the major crop markets were well of their highs made early in the day session by the afternoon close, but still finished higher nonetheless.

CN closed Wednesday at 4.38 and 3/4, up 1/4 of a cent. CZ was up 5 and 1/4 at 4.43 and 3/4. SN closed at 10.45, up 4 and 1/4. SX was up 3 and 1/2 cents at 10.25. WN finished at 5.43 and 1/4, up 7 and 1/4. Products were mostly higher, July soybean meal closed at 297.10, up $2.60/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 46.81, unchanged. Livestock markets were higher to end the day, August live cattle closed at 212.35, up $2.60, August feeders closed at 303.87, up $2.65, and July hogs closed at 105.02, up 45 cents. Inside day for all three markets. Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 120 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 40 points. Outside day lower for crude oil.

Spreads were mixed/mostly lower, corn spreads ended the day down 5 cents to up a quarter cent, and soybean spreads ended the day down a penny and a half to up 3/4 of a cent. CN/CU closed at 10 and 3/4, down 4 and 1/4, and SN/SQ closed at 6 and 1/4, down 1/4 of a cent. New contract lows again in CU/CZ at -16.

This morning's weekly ethanol production report from the EIA was the main data point in the corn and soybean markets on Wednesday, as news continues to be on the slow side while US crops are in the early stages of development. The report, with data for the week ending May 30th, showed daily ethanol production in the week averaged 1.105 mil bbls, which was up 4.6% from last week, up 3.5% from last year, and was the highest weekly figure since the week of March 14th. Ethanol stocks in the week were seen at 24.440 mil bbls, which was down 1.5% on the week but up more than 5% from the same week last year. As has been the case the last couple weeks also, the stocks figure was again the lowest for any week since the first week of the 2025 calendar year. We estimate corn usage in the week at 109.2 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year use to 4.116 bil bu; this compares to 4.003 bil bu through the same week last year and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.500 bil bu. Also in the EIA report was petroleum stocks data, which showed crude oil stocks in the week declining 4.304 mil bbls to 436.059 mil bbls, gasoline stocks increased 5.219 mil bbls to 228.3 mil bbls, and distillate stocks increased 4.23 mil bbls to 107.638 mil bbls. Implied gasoline demand in the week was seen at 8.263 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.452 mil last week and 8.946 mil in the same week last year.

Otherwise, Wednesday's news cycle was nearly identical to Tuesday's, with ongoing US/China rhetoric, weather, and developments in the Russia/Ukraine situation dominating the rest of the day's headlines. Starting with China, there were unconfirmed rumors throughout the day today that Trump's late evening social media post regarding the difficulty of doing a deal with President Xi Jinping was a cryptic sign that the two leaders had in fact spoke already. However, talk also continued to circulate that the two would potentially be speaking by phone on Friday still, which leads us to doubt any sort of secret conversation occurred between yesterday and today. As one could probably assume, whether or not this conversation occurs, and if it does occur, what that conversation consists of, will likely key a lot of the price direction in ag markets as we get into Friday afternoon and then also on the reopen Sunday evening.

Next moving a little further west, Trump also mentioned via a Truth Social post today that he and Russian President Putin had an hour+ long discussion by phone that included a conversation on the recent Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases, as well as other attacks from both sides that have been occurring in recent weeks. Trump said the call was good, but that it was not a conversation that would lead to immediate peace and that Putin said he would have to respond to the airfield attacks. Furthermore, Trump said the two discussed ongoing nuclear talks with Iran, and that he believed Putin was in agreement on the fact that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He added that he thought Iran had been slow-walking a decision on the negotiations, and that a definitive answer will be needed in a "very short period of time."

Lastly to the weather, a slow moving storm system has continued to provide rainfall to a strip of the east-central US stretching from TX/OK north and east through MO/IL and then up through the Great Lakes and into Canada. Satellite data shows total ranging from trace mounts to upwards of 3" in some places, with additional precip expected to continue falling the rest of the day today and through the night tonight. Then as this system exits, another more scattered storm system is seen beginning to work through the western US Thursday afternoon into Friday, though the high-res NAM model seems to show the system splitting to the north and to the south, leaving the central part of the Corn Belt dry. Like we've said repeatedly the last few weeks, the ongoing mix of rain and sunshine remains crop-positive in the short term, with risks still limited to the extended forecast.

The week two precip runs this afternoon are similar to yesterday's, though the CPC shifted back more in line with the GFS's outlook in seeing above precip chances for most of the eastern US in the period, while the EU model continues to see a strip through the central Midwest with average to below average precip potential. Better agreement is seen in the temperature outlook, with the 5-10 day forecast showing cooler than normal air lingering in the mid-south and southern Plains, while the West Coast and across the Canadian border in the north stay on the warmer than average side. 10-15 day maps are little changed, and show the warmest temps staying in the west, while the east warms to above normal but to a lesser degree. The GFS seems to see the high pressure ridge setting up further to the west than the EU model, which will be the biggest forecast development to pay attention to over the next 10 days.