Grain markets in Chicago closed lower for a third straight day on Wednesday, as selling pressure from fund managers ahead of next week's stocks and acreage updates has been unrelenting since late last week. Unlike the past couple days though, it was the soybean market that was today's downside leader though there really wasn't a specific reason seen for the shift.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.10 1/4, down 6 cents; new contract low at 4.08
• December Corn (CZ): $4.22 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; new contract low at 4.21
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 5 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA showed daily production in the week ending June 20th down 2.5% from last week at 1.081 mil bbls/day; the figure though was up 2.3% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks in the week were seen at 24.404 mil bbls, which was up 1.2% from last week and up 3.3% from the same week last year.

• Corn usage in the week was estimated at 106.8 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year corn use to 4.443 bil bu; this compares to 4.317 bil bu through the same week last year, and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.500 bil bu.

• Staying on the biofuel front, Brazil's National Energy Policy Council today announced that the percentage of fuel ethanol blended into gasoline would be increased from 27% to 30% this summer, in a move that will boost domestic demand.

Summary:

New day, same story on Wednesday in the corn market, as both old and new crop values made new contract lows again on a disappointing ethanol report and continued overall broader bearishness across the ag space in general. Brazil's massive crop continued to weigh on values again today, but it will be Monday's acreage and stocks data that will key price direction into pollination, which likely begins across the bulk of the Corn Belt in another three-ish weeks or so. Otherwise, fund positioning looks to be the main theme the rest of the week this week, with at least some sort of profit taking expected between now and the weekend.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.25 1/4, down 21 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.18 1/2, down 18 1/2 cents
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -4 1/4, down 3/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Along with the ethanol announcement, Brazil's National Energy Policy Council also announced that approval had been given to increase the amount of biodiesel in diesel blends to 15% from 14%. The group had previously this year decided against the increase due to push back from industry groups regarding increasing food prices and the lowering of government approval ratings.

• Meal values made new contract lows again today for now the fourth consecutive session, as sellers continue to remain active here based on record large US production.

Summary:

Like we mentioned above, the soy complex took over downside leadership in the ag space on Wednesday, but there wasn't really any specific reason as to why throughout the day. We've talked about it somewhat ad nauseum the past few weeks, but the bottom line remains that ending stocks get pretty bearish pretty quickly without some sort of China agreement when the new crop export window opens back up this fall. Non-China business should funnel to the US at some point on a price basis, but as we've found out in the years since Trump's first trade war, it is simply impossible to replace China's buying capacity.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.28 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.67 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -16 1/4, unchanged
• Sources familiar with the situation reported on Wednesday that Egypt's state grain buyer had bought sever hundred thousand tons of wheat in recent weeks for July/August delivery. The purchases come following a sharp drop-off in imports through the first half of this year due to elevated purchases at the end of last year.

📋 Market Headlines:

• Sources reported that Russian exporters have set export prices for the new wheat crop that is about to be harvested at $184 USD/ton, which is down sharply from values reported last week in the $226-230/ton ballpark. Experts say new crop harvest could drive prices even lower in the short term, but add that yield concerns in the south could lend offsetting support.

Summary:

Falling Russian FOB values were the main reason given by newswires for the decline in wheat futures values on Wednesday, though similar to corn, bearish headwinds throughout the whole of the ag space were likely just as much to blame. We didn't hear a lot new today on the harvest front, as rains across the eastern Plains and western Midwest the last 24 hours have likely slowed progress a bit in these areas.