Both locations dumping until 6pm

Oct 28, 2024   

Good afternoon. Corn and soybean futures started the new week lower in Chicago as sharply lower trade in the energy markets hung over the ag space like a dark cloud for the duration of Monday's trading session. Wheat futures made a meager attempt at a rally during the final hour of overnight trade this morning, but selling quickly emerged to knock prices back lower with the rest of the space shortly after the 8:30am central time re-open.

CZ closed Monday at 4.10 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. CH was down 4 3/4 at 4.24 3/4. Both gapped lower to open last night. SX closed at 9.74, down 13 3/4. SF finished at 9.86, down 11 1/2 cents. WZ closed at 5.58 3/4, down 10 1/4. Products were lower, December soybean meal was down $1.0/ton at 304.80, and December soybean oil closed at 42.69, down 1.46. Bean oil also gapped lower last night, and bean meal traded to its lowest level since August 26th this morning and also traded within $5/ton of its contract lows. Livestock markets were higher, December live cattle closed at 189.27, up 12 cents, January feeders closed at 246.95, up $1.32, and December hogs closed at 80.62, up 95 cents. New contract highs for Dec hogs at 80.82. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $4/bbl but are nearly $1 off their lows, the Dow Jones index is up 320 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both up 20 points. Inside day for all three stock index futures.

After announcing daily sales flashes every trading day last week, the USDA again announced a pair of daily sales this morning to start the new week; exporters announced 124,000 mt's of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2024/25 marketing year, and also announced 120,000 mt's of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year.

Other data on the demand side of the market on Monday included weekly export inspections for the week ending October 24th, which were large but all within trade expectations. Corn inspections totaled 824k mt's, which was down 17.7% from last week; cumulative inspection pace for the marketing year is up 33% from last year. Soybean inspections totaled 2.394 mmt's, which was down 6.1% from last week; cumulative inspections for the marketing year are now up 2% from last year, compared to being 3% behind last year a week ago. And lastly, wheat inspections for the week were seen at 249k mt's, which was down 7.1% from last week; cumulative marketing year pace is now up 34% from last year. Of note, the week's corn inspections were the largest in at least the last 7 years, while the soybean inspections, though large, were just the fourth highest figure for this particular week in the past 7 years. Also concerning on the soybean side is the idea that weekly exports seasonally peaked last week, which would be in line with historic norms.

Like we mentioned at the start, weekend happenings in the Middle East and the market reaction to said happenings was the dominant feature in the trade on Monday. Early Saturday morning, Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes against missile factories and other primarily military targets located mostly in western Iran, in what is viewed as a retaliatory attack for the Iranian strikes on October 1st. Sources on the Iranian side said the strikes inflicted minimal damage, but satellite imagery shows several buildings had been hit at multiple sites, including a building that was part of a now-defunct Iranian nuclear weapons development program, and also facilities used to mix solid fuel for missiles. That the attack did not include any of Iran's oil infrastructure or working nuclear facilities was viewed as de-escalatory by the energy markets, as they traded to sharp losses throughout most of the day session. This, however, does not look to be the end of the ongoing saga between the two countries, as a spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that Tehran would use "all available tools" to respond to the attacks.

News through the day was otherwise limited to mostly weather, as this afternoon's harvest update doesn't look to offer much in terms of market-moving data. Initial condition ratings for the winter wheat crop could offer a bullish lean due to recent dryness, but with rains being in the forecast and the calendar still saying October, any pop from this will likely be short-lived. And equity markets were quiet for the most part to start the week, as the US Presidential election looms just one week from tomorrow. Price action on the equity side likely increases in volatility as the days go on this week, as while there will be some measure of 'risk-off' trade ahead of next week, there is also a plethora of important economic data due out in the next four days that will garner market attention.

Mid-day weather continues to feature some of the best rain chances in weeks for many areas of the US, with the heaviest totals seen falling through the east/central part of the country beginning Wednesday and lasting through next weekend. Ten-day outlooks show rainfall of 1-3", with some locally heavier amounts, through much of the Midwest and mid-south, while 10-15 day maps also show additional wet biases in some of the same areas. The northwest corner of the country appears to be the only dry area into November 11th. Temperatures become slightly more seasonal this week beyond Wednesday, but will still carry an above average bias for the eastern two/thirds of the country into next week. There is some divergence between the GFS and the EU models on the 10-15 day temp outlook, with the GFS showing a cooler pattern emerging for all but the southwest, while the EU keeps with the recent cool west/warm east trend that has been in place for most of October.

There were not a lot of weekend updates to the South American weather pattern, as models continue to show a drier bias for Argentina and southern Brazil this week, while central and northern Brazil continue to see steady rains. The dryness lasting beyond a week or so in Argentina would start to become concerning, but is not currently a problem following recent good rains the last couple weeks. Temperature anomaly maps for the next week coincide with rainfall maps a bit, as Argentina and southern Brazil hold in a mostly warm pattern while central and eastern Brazil will see temps that are slightly below average.