Free DP for on farm Corn & Soybeans.  Priced By Aug 31

May 2, 2024 

Good afternoon. Sharply higher trade Thursday in the soy complex pulled corn and wheat futures higher for green closes across the board. Computer trading was the dominant theme for the day, as there wasn't a noted fundamental change to cause the sharp rally. Short covering by the funds also likely contributed to price gains as we approach another weekend.

CN ended the day at 4.59 3/4, up 9 cents. High was 4.60 1/2. CZ closed at 4.79 1/2, up 6 3/4. High was 4.80 1/2. SN closed at 11.99, up 28 3/4. High was 12.01 3/4. SX closed at 11.87 3/4, up 22 3/4. High was 11.90 1/4. WN was 5 cents higher at 6.04 1/4. Products were mixed, July soybean meal closed at 364.90, up $15.90/ton, and July bean oil closed at 43.24, down 2 points. Cattle markets were higher Thursday, June live cattle closed at 176.80, up $2.95, and August feeders closed at 255.22, up $3.47. June hogs closed 50 cents lower at 99.92. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 10 cents to down 10 cents, the Dow Jones index is up 300 points, and the US$ index is down 40 points. The Dow has had an inside day as of this writing.

Spreads were mostly stronger, corn spreads were up 1-2 cents, and soybean spreads were up 6-12 cents. With May in delivery, CK/CN closed at -7 3/4, and SK/SN closed at -9. SK/SN traded to a positive half cent during the day today after making a low at -23 earlier this week. Old/new crop bean spreads also traded sharply higher on Thursday.

The bull camp had one of the better non-report trading sessions in some time today, as buy stops were triggered above key resistance points. July soybeans closed above their 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, while July corn touched its 100-day moving average for the first time since last October. Soybean meal also cleared some hurdles on Thursday, as July closed above its 100-day moving average for the first time this year. Soybeans will have to now contest with the $12 level again to end the week, which has been a barrier for most of 2024; and a close above $4.60 to end the week on July corn but would be short term positive.

This morning's weekly export sales report was once again rather ho-hum. We are squarely in the middle of South American export season, with US loadings pushed to the back burner. Corn sales were seen at 759k mt's, which was at the lower end of trade expectations. Featured buyers for the week ending April 25th were Japan (267,400 mt's), Mexico (190,800 mt's), and Korea (140,700 mt's). Sales are currently running 23% ahead of last year. Soybean sales were seen at 414k mt's, which was right in the middle of trade expectations. Featured buyers for the week were Egypt (146,000 mt's), and Indonesia (112k mt's). Sales are currently running 17% behind last year. And wheat sales were seen for the week at (20k) mt's, also in the middle of expectations. Unknown destinations rolled/canceled 115k mt's. Sales are currently running 1% behind last year.

Thursday's weekly drought monitor update unsurprisingly continued to show improvement in drought conditions across a wide majority of the Midwest following recent heavy rainfall. One class improvements were noted across a large area of MO, while parts of Eastern KS into Western MO actually saw 2-class improvements in the last week. Improving conditions were also noted across parts of NE, IA, and MN, where recent rainfall in the last 5 days has been heaviest. At the state level, IA continues to be the Corn Belt state in the worst shape, though as mentioned, improvement has been made in recent weeks. The state now has just 49.9% of the area in D1-D4 drought, down from 58% a week ago and 83.4% on Jan 1. MN sees 35.8% of the state in D1-D4, down from 42.6% last week, while MO is at 19.5%, down from 39.5% last week. IL and IN are virtually 'drought free', with just 4% of the two states combined in D1-D4 conditions. As a nation, 33% of land used for corn production is experiencing some type of drought, while 31% of soybean land is in the same condition. Of note, the Southwest into Mexico continues to be the driest area in the US.

Weekly jobless data out this morning did not offer much in the way of direction to the markets. Initial claims were unchanged on the week at a seasonally adjusted 208,000. Economists had anticipated an increase of a few thousand to 212,000. Claims have generally bounced between 190,000 and 225,000 for the majority of this year. Continuing claims also came in unchanged on the week at 1.774 mil. Tomorrow's April employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increasing by 243,000, vs an increase of 303,000 in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 3.8%.

Mid-day weather is again mostly unchanged form the overnight runs. Storm system number 1 of 4 makes its way through the Plains and Northern Corn Belt today, with subsequent systems to be seen every 3-4 days as low pressure systems continue to barrel out of the Northwest. The EU model sees rainfall totals of 1-4" impacting most of the Eastern US over the next 10 days, with locally heavier amounts forecast. The GFS is slightly farther to the East with its precip, but the models are otherwise in good agreement. Confidence beyond day 5 is limited. Cool air enters the Midwest briefly this weekend before temps again warm to above average for the East next week. The West/Northwest will be slightly cooler than normal over the next week.

Argentina has trended wetter over the last 24 hours, while Brazil's forecast has remained the same. Flooding is beginning to become an issue in far Southern Brazil as some areas have received upwards of 20+" of rain in the past two weeks. Southern Argentina sees frost risk over the next 5 days, while Brazil remains downright hot